***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 74.7 92.8 44.3 147.6 75.7 64.1 24.0 32.9 55.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 50.0 56.8 41.9 117.1 67.9 56.6 30.7 45.9 56.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 48.5 53.7 44.3 131.4 68.5 61.9 27.4 41.5 53.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 75.4 97.1 45.4 149.8 80.8 66.0 33.6 53.1 72.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 65.8 80.1 47.2 144.9 80.2 66.7 28.3 38.7 71.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 76.4 86.6 64.6 154.5 81.3 70.4 39.7 52.2 70.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 21.8 56.2 42.9 120.0 68.5 57.1 22.6 28.9 41.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 110.1 128.6 62.0 148.8 79.3 68.2 55.0 64.9 102.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 61.9 72.6 50.1 141.4 78.6 65.5 28.0 45.5 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 86.6 103.4 63.4 141.7 77.9 65.9 41.6 52.3 90.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 61.9 73.1 43.5 146.1 80.0 67.5 26.6 37.1 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 87.4 102.1 44.5 150.3 80.2 68.7 38.9 52.8 75.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 55.2 59.7 49.2 152.1 78.4 69.7 22.1 40.6 53.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 70.4 82.0 62.6 140.5 72.5 62.7 53.3 57.5 68.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 28.3 78.7 41.3 156.4 81.0 64.8 16.6 18.9 44.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 47.8 52.6 43.4 150.3 79.9 69.2 25.8 37.7 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.6 72.6 42.8 118.2 68.2 56.3 27.7 40.7 60.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 81.0 85.7 75.6 139.9 73.2 65.3 48.4 60.2 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 58.3 69.2 41.8 116.7 66.9 56.8 31.4 51.3 69.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 67.7 70.1 79.7 145.0 74.3 67.5 38.4 48.0 63.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 51.7 78.5 44.6 142.7 75.2 64.2 32.8 44.3 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 34.1 69.8 43.6 118.6 68.4 56.9 40.8 52.5 68.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 48.5 65.9 44.2 119.9 66.1 57.7 32.6 41.5 65.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 56.5 70.3 62.0 137.5 72.9 63.9 43.2 52.7 66.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 48.3 61.2 52.9 143.1 74.1 63.6 26.4 43.8 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 59.4 69.1 42.1 166.2 82.1 72.1 22.5 37.0 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 67.5 81.9 52.9 144.0 74.6 63.7 26.5 41.1 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 61.8 77.1 42.5 153.4 79.7 66.1 26.0 41.7 56.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 96.8 103.6 78.0 141.3 72.7 65.8 67.1 72.1 93.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 45.2 71.5 42.5 122.6 69.9 58.8 25.1 34.9 60.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------