***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 24.2 6.4 118.7 74.8 49.5 0.9 6.1 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.1 14.6 5.6 88.0 67.3 49.9 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 10.2 6.3 109.7 72.3 49.9 0.9 4.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.0 20.4 5.8 125.1 76.7 51.3 1.3 5.1 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.0 15.7 7.0 127.5 77.9 52.6 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 0.6 9.4 10.4 138.5 77.8 53.0 0.3 1.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.8 5.6 89.2 66.4 47.0 1.7 4.9 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 22.9 11.1 140.0 76.7 57.1 2.5 6.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.9 17.8 8.2 133.8 78.6 53.3 0.8 3.9 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 23.4 11.1 138.1 77.1 55.4 1.7 7.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.2 25.0 6.6 125.9 77.2 53.1 1.4 4.4 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.5 15.2 7.9 146.9 78.0 56.7 0.0 1.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.1 15.2 8.3 152.3 76.7 55.6 0.4 5.4 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.3 33.8 10.4 130.1 76.1 54.6 0.4 4.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.5 10.4 4.5 135.5 77.4 52.2 0.1 1.4 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.4 13.6 6.1 129.4 77.7 53.7 1.3 3.2 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.5 14.5 6.1 94.9 69.3 52.3 1.3 7.4 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 32.1 13.3 134.6 76.4 57.1 0.7 9.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 18.4 5.8 91.2 69.1 50.4 0.5 5.3 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.5 18.5 13.8 115.0 73.6 56.4 4.7 9.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.3 24.2 6.9 128.8 78.9 51.5 1.2 7.3 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.3 15.7 7.3 107.4 74.7 53.8 2.3 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 0.4 20.9 6.3 99.2 74.0 50.4 0.3 0.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.1 20.1 10.0 127.3 76.3 54.8 1.3 10.8 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 18.7 6.9 111.4 76.1 51.2 0.3 8.0 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.2 15.7 6.4 149.7 79.9 58.1 0.4 2.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 22.2 7.2 112.5 76.5 49.8 0.4 3.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.7 10.3 5.3 138.6 79.1 52.8 0.8 3.2 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 37.1 13.5 126.0 74.6 56.1 5.8 13.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.1 5.8 94.4 67.3 48.4 1.4 4.6 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------