***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.9 53.2 11.0 240.0 87.9 62.4 0.9 3.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 11.2 21.5 11.3 170.4 82.2 59.4 0.9 2.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 36.1 11.4 189.5 84.5 59.3 1.0 6.9 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 25.8 40.2 13.1 227.2 89.3 67.4 3.9 5.5 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 19.3 30.4 13.4 213.8 89.0 66.9 0.1 2.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 25.3 37.6 16.9 188.8 85.7 65.8 1.7 8.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.5 26.2 11.6 172.2 82.3 58.5 1.7 5.3 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 25.3 34.1 17.3 189.8 84.3 65.3 3.5 13.1 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 20.7 32.5 13.7 193.8 86.3 64.7 0.3 2.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 24.3 34.7 17.7 186.5 84.3 64.8 2.8 6.0 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 16.2 28.5 12.7 225.2 88.4 67.8 0.6 3.3 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 21.0 38.2 12.2 200.6 86.6 65.4 0.2 6.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 10.8 28.3 13.5 205.4 87.7 65.9 2.0 3.8 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.0 38.2 15.9 180.4 80.9 58.6 0.8 9.4 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 10.9 32.1 11.5 233.6 89.5 65.6 1.2 6.9 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.7 22.6 12.3 229.8 88.4 68.0 2.4 4.8 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 25.2 10.8 145.7 78.6 59.4 1.7 4.6 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 24.3 41.8 20.5 170.7 83.8 63.0 2.7 7.1 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 35.0 11.0 168.5 81.9 59.0 1.8 4.8 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 15.8 31.6 22.7 180.8 84.2 64.0 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 22.0 38.9 11.6 210.4 86.7 62.3 0.2 7.5 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.7 27.1 10.2 137.1 75.4 59.1 3.8 6.6 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.1 27.4 11.4 173.2 82.7 58.1 1.4 4.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.5 43.1 16.3 174.7 83.4 60.3 0.8 7.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.8 34.0 14.6 225.6 87.8 62.5 0.3 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 18.5 32.3 11.1 239.6 85.0 67.4 2.2 6.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 43.8 13.7 234.2 88.4 61.7 2.5 6.7 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 21.1 38.7 12.1 236.4 89.1 67.4 3.6 6.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.6 35.1 21.2 172.1 82.3 62.6 4.2 9.7 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 29.0 11.4 184.5 83.1 58.8 2.4 5.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------