***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.3 15.4 15.7 108.7 69.4 59.2 1.1 3.3 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.5 15.4 102.6 68.7 54.8 2.3 6.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 14.5 17.2 117.4 69.6 60.1 4.1 6.2 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 25.6 28.3 17.9 127.7 73.7 61.1 3.1 14.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 18.0 18.8 18.6 133.1 72.7 63.5 5.2 10.4 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 20.0 27.8 23.1 168.3 81.1 69.3 4.9 9.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.5 10.8 15.6 104.3 69.3 54.9 1.8 4.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 35.3 41.7 22.2 150.6 77.0 67.6 18.1 23.6 35.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 17.9 16.2 19.2 134.3 71.2 63.6 5.0 7.9 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 25.7 32.0 23.0 141.9 75.7 65.6 8.8 14.5 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.9 19.2 17.6 142.5 78.3 65.5 4.4 11.1 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 18.9 20.0 16.8 146.9 76.0 66.6 6.2 10.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.1 21.4 17.4 141.2 76.7 66.0 4.4 8.8 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.0 29.4 22.9 128.0 72.2 60.3 5.9 14.6 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 7.3 8.4 16.3 134.0 76.2 63.3 1.2 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 18.7 22.5 16.9 138.6 77.4 65.5 5.5 13.1 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.3 13.2 16.6 115.9 72.9 55.7 2.2 3.7 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 28.0 34.8 25.2 137.5 75.0 65.3 8.5 16.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 16.6 15.8 102.7 67.4 55.0 3.6 8.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 25.2 28.2 24.6 145.5 75.8 66.8 7.8 18.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.5 17.6 122.9 69.4 60.9 4.7 6.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.4 16.5 112.8 69.1 53.2 5.2 8.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.7 18.6 17.3 107.3 66.5 56.2 3.1 7.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.5 24.2 22.4 132.2 73.6 63.1 6.1 10.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 7.7 10.5 18.6 108.3 66.9 57.9 2.7 5.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.4 16.8 16.5 155.1 78.5 68.4 3.8 7.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.1 17.6 18.2 106.3 69.0 58.8 2.4 5.4 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.9 19.1 16.9 132.6 75.8 62.9 2.9 7.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 31.3 37.2 24.9 137.4 73.9 64.1 17.6 20.1 32.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.9 15.6 104.3 67.6 55.9 2.2 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------