***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.7 29.3 -0.6 42.2 42.8 28.5 28.9 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.3 30.0 0.2 60.0 56.0 28.3 28.8 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.0 29.5 -0.5 45.5 44.4 28.3 29.1 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 21.2 21.2 27.3 -1.4 23.5 25.9 21.5 22.4 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 28.1 28.8 27.5 -1.1 29.9 32.2 28.9 29.6 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 26.9 27.0 25.0 -1.3 22.2 26.5 27.4 28.0 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.1 29.9 0.1 59.3 55.6 28.2 28.7 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 16.4 16.4 25.6 -1.0 30.7 31.8 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.8 28.5 27.8 -0.9 34.4 35.0 28.4 29.2 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 27.6 28.2 26.3 -1.0 34.3 34.0 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.4 27.1 -0.9 33.8 35.2 28.3 29.0 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 27.3 27.3 26.8 -1.0 33.3 33.7 27.3 28.1 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.9 28.4 26.3 -1.2 27.9 29.5 28.8 29.4 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.3 27.4 -0.6 44.9 41.8 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 28.8 28.8 28.1 -1.5 21.2 24.0 29.6 30.1 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 28.8 29.2 26.9 -1.1 29.6 30.9 29.4 30.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.4 29.0 29.8 0.4 65.9 59.3 27.7 28.1 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.3 25.4 -0.9 35.0 34.5 27.3 27.8 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.6 29.9 0.0 56.2 53.6 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.5 23.3 -1.0 28.5 31.2 22.8 23.5 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.6 28.6 28.7 -0.9 35.4 35.5 28.5 29.2 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.7 29.3 0.0 55.1 52.7 28.0 28.5 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.6 29.3 -0.2 50.2 48.9 28.0 28.6 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.1 27.3 -0.7 41.5 39.1 27.7 28.4 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 28.0 28.7 27.7 -1.0 32.8 33.8 28.7 29.4 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 27.7 27.7 26.2 -1.3 21.1 25.3 28.4 28.7 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.3 28.5 -0.6 39.6 41.3 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 28.8 28.9 27.6 -1.5 21.0 24.2 29.6 30.0 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.6 24.4 -0.9 34.7 33.8 22.6 23.2 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.0 30.0 -0.1 53.2 52.4 28.0 28.9 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------