***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 27.9 29.5 29.9 -0.7 41.4 42.0 29.1 30.2 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 30.4 30.1 30.5 0.0 50.4 49.0 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.4 30.0 -0.6 43.3 43.7 28.9 29.6 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 20.8 20.3 28.1 -1.5 27.5 33.7 21.1 23.3 25.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 28.1 28.9 28.1 -1.2 35.2 37.7 28.6 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 26.7 26.5 25.6 -1.4 33.5 35.6 26.4 29.0 30.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.2 30.4 0.0 50.0 49.3 28.5 30.2 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.3 16.8 26.2 -1.1 38.9 39.7 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.7 28.6 28.2 -1.1 36.2 39.7 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 27.6 28.3 26.8 -1.0 39.1 40.1 27.7 29.7 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.7 27.7 -1.0 38.8 40.4 28.0 30.1 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.2 27.9 27.4 -1.0 38.3 40.3 27.6 29.0 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.0 28.3 26.9 -1.3 33.3 36.8 28.3 30.4 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.8 27.9 -0.6 40.4 43.3 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 28.1 28.2 28.6 -1.6 24.8 31.8 28.7 30.7 32.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 28.6 28.7 27.4 -1.2 33.8 37.4 28.5 30.8 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.9 30.2 0.1 51.9 50.1 28.4 29.6 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.3 26.0 -0.9 39.3 41.3 27.2 28.5 30.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 30.1 29.8 30.4 -0.1 49.3 48.0 28.3 29.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.6 23.9 -1.1 39.6 39.7 22.7 24.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 27.2 28.7 29.2 -1.0 37.4 38.9 28.5 29.9 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.9 29.8 -0.2 47.8 46.9 28.9 30.0 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.2 29.9 -0.3 46.4 46.4 28.3 29.5 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.4 27.8 -0.7 40.2 42.7 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 28.0 29.0 28.2 -1.2 34.4 36.7 28.9 30.7 31.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.1 26.9 -1.5 32.0 34.6 27.2 29.8 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 27.3 29.1 29.0 -0.8 40.0 40.9 28.3 29.5 31.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 28.3 28.0 28.3 -1.6 26.5 32.7 28.4 30.5 32.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.9 23.1 24.9 -0.9 40.3 41.5 22.3 24.2 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.6 30.6 -0.2 48.2 47.6 29.0 29.9 31.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------