***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.2 28.9 -1.8 31.7 33.7 27.2 28.3 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.9 29.6 -1.0 42.7 42.4 27.4 28.3 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 27.1 27.5 29.0 -1.7 33.2 35.2 27.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 20.4 19.8 27.0 -2.5 15.8 24.2 21.5 22.0 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 27.4 26.9 27.0 -2.2 22.1 28.0 28.2 29.8 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 26.4 25.5 24.8 -2.1 17.0 26.3 27.0 28.6 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.7 29.5 -1.0 44.1 42.6 27.2 28.2 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.4 16.6 25.4 -2.0 25.3 29.4 16.9 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.2 27.3 27.2 -2.1 28.1 30.2 27.7 28.7 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 27.1 27.4 25.9 -2.0 26.9 30.2 28.0 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.3 26.7 -2.0 26.3 30.0 28.1 29.4 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 26.9 26.8 26.5 -2.0 25.9 29.6 27.1 28.4 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 27.8 26.9 25.9 -2.2 20.4 27.2 28.0 29.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.4 26.9 -1.6 36.9 35.9 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 28.2 27.7 27.6 -2.4 15.9 23.2 29.0 30.0 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 28.2 27.4 26.5 -2.1 20.3 27.2 29.1 30.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.6 29.3 -0.8 45.4 44.9 26.9 27.9 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.0 -2.0 26.4 31.2 26.9 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 26.5 27.5 29.4 -1.2 41.0 41.3 27.0 28.1 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 22.7 22.3 23.0 -2.1 22.5 29.1 22.8 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.0 28.1 -2.1 27.4 30.4 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.9 29.0 -1.1 43.7 41.9 27.1 28.0 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.8 27.6 28.9 -1.3 38.3 39.2 27.5 27.8 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.0 26.8 -1.8 31.8 33.6 27.0 27.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 27.2 26.8 27.1 -2.2 21.9 28.3 27.9 29.1 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 27.4 26.9 26.0 -2.3 17.7 25.1 28.0 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 26.9 26.5 28.0 -1.8 29.8 32.6 26.9 28.2 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 28.3 27.7 27.3 -2.5 15.6 23.4 28.9 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 21.9 21.6 24.0 -1.9 26.3 31.3 22.1 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.6 29.5 -1.2 40.0 40.2 27.3 28.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------