***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 29.1 28.8 29.7 0.1 51.5 50.8 27.2 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.6 30.3 0.8 64.7 59.5 27.9 29.2 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.0 29.9 0.2 53.4 53.0 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.3 27.8 -0.8 38.7 39.8 21.1 21.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.9 27.9 -0.4 43.6 45.0 28.4 29.1 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.2 25.2 -0.9 37.4 38.7 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.4 30.3 0.8 63.7 59.5 27.7 29.1 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.0 26.1 -0.3 44.5 46.1 15.8 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.4 28.1 -0.2 45.8 47.8 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 28.4 27.8 26.8 -0.2 47.2 47.6 27.2 27.8 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.4 27.5 -0.2 47.8 48.0 27.8 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.6 27.2 -0.3 42.5 46.1 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.3 26.5 -0.7 38.2 41.1 28.0 28.6 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.6 27.8 0.2 52.0 51.7 27.5 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 29.0 29.3 28.2 -1.0 35.6 36.7 29.3 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.2 27.1 -0.5 41.9 43.1 28.8 29.3 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.8 29.4 30.1 1.0 66.7 61.8 27.1 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.7 26.9 25.9 -0.1 47.1 48.4 26.5 27.3 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.2 30.2 0.7 62.3 58.3 27.4 28.4 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.7 23.8 -0.3 44.1 45.3 22.0 23.0 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.6 29.0 -0.2 47.5 47.8 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.7 29.7 0.7 61.3 58.0 27.4 29.1 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.1 29.7 0.5 57.9 55.8 27.2 28.8 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.2 27.8 0.1 51.4 51.4 26.9 28.1 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.7 28.0 -0.3 45.9 45.6 27.9 28.9 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.0 26.5 -0.9 35.5 38.2 27.9 28.6 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.8 28.8 0.0 49.8 50.2 27.6 28.8 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 29.0 29.3 27.9 -0.9 36.4 37.8 29.0 30.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.2 24.9 -0.1 47.6 48.0 21.6 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.0 30.3 0.6 60.6 57.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------