***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.8 28.9 0.1 58.1 53.3 26.1 27.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.4 29.5 1.0 69.3 64.6 26.8 27.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.3 28.9 0.1 58.4 53.7 26.2 27.2 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 19.6 19.3 26.2 -0.9 39.1 39.8 18.9 21.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.3 27.0 -0.5 44.5 46.2 26.5 28.2 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.0 24.3 -0.7 40.4 41.4 25.6 26.5 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.8 29.3 0.8 67.6 62.0 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.3 24.7 -0.7 43.0 43.0 14.7 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.3 27.8 -0.4 46.5 47.2 26.2 27.6 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.3 25.7 -0.6 45.4 45.2 25.9 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.3 26.7 -0.4 46.5 47.1 26.4 27.5 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.7 26.6 26.0 -0.5 45.6 46.0 25.7 27.2 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 28.3 27.6 26.0 -0.5 43.0 44.9 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.6 27.4 27.0 -0.2 51.3 50.0 26.4 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.4 27.9 -1.0 35.8 37.6 27.3 29.2 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.3 26.5 -0.5 45.2 45.8 27.7 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 28.5 28.8 29.3 1.2 73.0 66.4 25.9 26.9 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.3 24.7 -0.5 45.0 45.4 25.3 26.6 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 28.3 28.7 29.3 0.7 67.1 62.2 26.2 26.8 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.7 22.7 -0.5 45.4 45.0 21.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.4 28.5 -0.3 46.8 47.3 26.3 27.9 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 27.9 28.7 28.8 0.7 63.3 60.9 26.4 27.6 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.8 28.7 0.3 62.4 56.5 26.2 27.1 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.4 26.7 26.8 -0.3 49.0 48.3 26.1 27.0 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.2 27.3 -0.3 46.0 46.9 26.4 28.4 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.0 25.5 -0.7 42.4 42.0 26.6 27.4 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.8 28.2 0.1 56.2 52.6 26.1 27.7 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 27.8 27.4 26.9 -1.0 37.3 37.6 27.4 29.1 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.4 23.8 -0.5 45.5 45.2 21.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 28.6 28.9 29.4 0.6 65.9 60.4 26.6 27.0 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------