***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.2 18.8 0.0 58.6 53.0 15.2 15.8 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.5 19.1 0.3 67.7 61.6 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.1 18.7 0.0 58.3 53.0 16.8 17.9 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.3 12.8 16.5 -0.6 32.3 36.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.9 16.5 -0.4 40.7 42.3 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.9 -0.4 37.5 41.1 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.6 19.2 0.3 66.3 60.8 15.3 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.3 14.5 -0.3 37.8 41.2 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.1 16.8 -0.3 43.3 44.9 14.9 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.1 15.1 -0.3 41.3 44.2 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.9 16.2 -0.2 46.5 47.2 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 15.6 -0.3 41.9 44.1 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.0 15.3 -0.3 40.8 43.1 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.1 16.7 -0.2 48.9 47.2 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 15.8 15.7 17.3 -0.8 28.3 31.8 16.0 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.0 -0.3 41.4 43.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.1 18.7 0.4 69.7 63.1 15.8 16.4 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.2 14.3 -0.2 41.8 44.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.1 18.9 0.2 66.2 59.5 15.1 15.8 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.0 12.6 -0.4 37.3 40.4 8.7 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.0 17.8 -0.3 46.1 45.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.7 18.5 0.2 63.6 57.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.6 18.4 0.1 60.2 54.6 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.0 16.5 -0.2 47.7 47.3 14.9 16.0 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.4 17.1 -0.3 48.3 45.8 14.6 15.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 -0.5 30.5 35.5 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 17.9 -0.1 55.3 51.1 14.4 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.4 13.7 16.9 -0.7 28.7 33.4 13.9 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.8 -0.2 42.0 44.7 12.2 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 19.2 0.2 64.7 59.0 15.3 16.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------