***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.9 15.1 18.5 -0.6 39.2 41.0 14.7 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.3 19.0 -0.3 46.1 46.4 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 17.2 17.1 18.5 -0.6 39.7 41.4 16.9 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.6 16.4 -1.1 30.0 32.8 12.7 14.1 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.7 16.2 -1.0 32.9 35.1 13.7 14.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.4 14.9 -0.9 29.2 34.0 12.6 13.4 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 15.3 16.1 19.1 -0.3 47.0 46.8 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.0 8.0 14.4 -0.9 31.7 34.4 8.1 9.1 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.3 -0.9 31.3 34.9 14.7 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 14.5 14.6 14.8 -0.9 30.4 34.6 14.8 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.9 16.0 -0.8 36.3 37.7 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.5 15.5 -0.9 32.5 34.9 12.5 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.5 15.0 -0.9 27.3 33.5 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 15.1 15.5 16.4 -0.8 31.0 36.3 15.5 16.2 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 15.9 16.0 17.1 -1.2 28.2 31.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.1 15.9 -0.9 32.6 35.6 15.2 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 15.7 16.5 18.5 -0.2 48.5 47.0 15.7 16.5 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.8 14.1 -0.9 26.8 34.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 15.1 15.6 18.8 -0.3 45.3 45.0 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.9 9.2 12.7 -0.8 32.3 35.4 9.3 10.5 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.4 -0.9 32.9 35.6 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.0 18.3 -0.3 45.4 44.5 14.7 15.3 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.4 15.3 18.2 -0.5 43.0 41.9 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 15.1 15.4 16.2 -0.8 31.5 36.4 15.5 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.7 -1.0 33.6 35.1 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.0 -1.1 28.1 30.7 14.1 14.6 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.6 17.6 -0.7 38.8 39.3 14.2 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.9 -1.1 29.5 32.2 14.0 14.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.6 -0.8 29.0 35.6 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.8 19.1 -0.3 44.6 45.6 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------