***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.7 18.5 -0.6 38.0 41.3 15.5 16.1 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 18.9 -0.3 49.6 48.6 14.9 16.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.8 18.4 -0.6 40.2 42.2 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 12.1 11.6 16.3 -1.2 25.7 32.4 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.4 16.1 -1.0 31.6 36.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 12.2 11.9 14.6 -1.1 24.1 32.3 12.2 13.2 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.5 19.1 -0.2 52.1 49.1 15.1 16.3 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.8 7.9 14.3 -1.0 28.2 35.1 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.0 16.3 -0.9 33.6 38.1 14.9 15.7 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.2 14.8 -0.9 31.1 37.5 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.8 14.1 15.9 -0.8 34.8 39.0 14.0 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.2 15.4 -0.9 30.3 36.1 12.4 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.4 13.4 15.0 -0.9 30.1 35.4 13.4 14.6 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.5 16.5 -0.7 36.8 41.3 15.3 16.0 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 15.6 15.7 17.0 -1.3 24.7 30.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.8 15.7 -0.9 30.9 36.3 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.5 18.6 -0.1 53.5 50.0 15.7 16.4 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.1 -0.8 30.0 37.7 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.9 18.7 -0.3 47.8 47.2 14.8 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.4 12.5 -1.1 26.2 33.9 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.4 14.4 17.4 -0.9 34.3 37.9 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.6 18.2 -0.3 49.4 47.0 14.8 15.6 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.1 18.2 -0.5 45.1 44.7 14.1 15.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.7 14.9 16.2 -0.7 34.2 40.1 14.9 15.8 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 13.6 14.7 16.7 -0.9 30.7 36.7 14.7 15.0 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 13.3 13.2 14.9 -1.1 27.0 31.6 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.8 17.7 -0.7 38.1 40.7 14.6 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.1 16.7 -1.3 24.0 30.7 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.6 13.6 -0.9 29.3 37.1 11.7 12.6 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.1 19.0 -0.4 47.1 46.9 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------