***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.07.2014.-20.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.9 19.0 0.4 56.9 56.4 14.6 15.3 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.1 19.4 0.7 66.6 62.9 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 18.9 0.4 59.5 56.8 16.7 17.5 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.9 16.9 -0.1 47.0 48.4 11.7 13.0 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.7 16.8 0.1 52.3 52.0 13.0 13.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.9 15.2 0.0 51.1 50.9 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.7 19.5 0.7 65.9 63.3 15.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.3 14.8 0.0 53.2 49.6 7.8 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.2 16.9 0.1 54.4 52.0 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.3 15.4 0.1 54.6 51.5 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.3 16.5 0.3 56.7 55.3 14.0 14.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 15.9 0.1 53.4 51.8 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.8 15.6 0.1 51.7 52.4 13.2 13.7 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.4 17.0 0.3 57.3 55.5 15.2 15.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.0 17.4 -0.4 42.5 43.0 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.8 16.3 0.1 53.0 53.4 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.8 19.2 0.8 70.2 65.4 15.6 16.4 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.5 14.6 0.2 54.9 53.1 12.5 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.4 19.2 0.6 65.2 61.5 14.7 15.5 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.4 12.9 0.0 51.9 50.3 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.1 18.0 0.2 53.8 52.7 14.2 14.8 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.2 16.0 18.8 0.6 68.0 61.7 14.4 14.9 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.8 18.7 0.5 63.0 58.7 14.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.5 16.7 0.3 55.9 55.0 14.8 15.1 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.8 17.4 0.2 54.2 54.6 13.9 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.6 15.3 -0.2 44.3 45.5 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.5 18.2 0.4 57.2 57.0 14.4 15.4 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.0 17.2 -0.3 44.9 45.4 13.2 14.0 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 14.1 0.2 54.1 54.2 11.6 12.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.9 19.5 0.6 63.8 60.8 15.2 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------