***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.07.2014.-13.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.4 19.1 0.9 72.0 67.9 14.7 15.1 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.9 16.3 19.1 1.0 75.4 70.9 14.1 14.7 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 17.8 18.2 18.9 0.8 71.0 66.9 16.0 16.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.1 16.2 0.0 55.0 53.7 11.1 11.6 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.6 16.7 0.4 63.4 61.7 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.3 14.8 0.5 64.9 63.7 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.3 19.1 0.9 72.5 68.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 7.9 8.5 14.7 0.6 65.2 63.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.6 17.4 0.6 67.5 65.7 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.7 15.9 15.5 0.7 68.1 66.0 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.6 15.5 16.4 0.7 68.8 66.5 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 13.3 13.5 15.6 0.7 67.8 66.7 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.4 15.3 15.4 0.5 66.1 65.3 12.8 14.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.6 16.9 0.6 66.6 62.6 14.7 15.5 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 17.5 -0.3 50.7 46.7 15.9 16.2 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.5 16.0 16.1 0.5 66.1 64.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 16.6 17.1 18.7 1.1 76.0 70.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 14.2 14.1 14.4 0.6 66.3 64.9 11.7 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.7 16.0 19.0 1.0 75.2 70.1 14.1 14.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.9 12.4 0.5 63.5 61.5 8.4 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 14.8 15.6 18.4 0.6 65.3 63.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.8 18.5 0.8 70.6 65.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.5 18.6 0.8 73.0 67.7 13.5 14.6 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.3 16.7 0.6 67.4 64.9 14.5 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.4 17.6 0.6 66.8 63.4 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 13.8 14.5 14.8 0.4 63.9 62.0 12.8 13.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.3 18.3 0.8 69.4 65.9 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.1 16.8 -0.1 51.5 49.9 13.4 14.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 13.1 12.6 13.9 0.6 65.6 63.4 11.3 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.5 19.3 0.9 72.7 69.0 14.2 15.2 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------