***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 23.1 39.8 34.3 82.8 53.2 43.6 22.6 28.4 55.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.9 46.3 34.8 94.3 57.9 47.4 31.8 40.5 57.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 49.4 50.8 40.4 95.7 57.6 49.6 31.3 43.2 53.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 62.1 55.8 37.7 96.2 57.1 48.0 33.6 53.1 73.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 47.3 66.7 41.1 106.1 62.8 52.0 28.6 40.5 67.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 59.5 57.0 43.7 103.4 57.8 51.4 39.7 52.2 70.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 21.6 33.1 33.4 92.0 56.3 46.4 21.2 29.7 46.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 76.3 95.4 47.2 105.5 62.4 51.5 54.4 63.1 102.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 50.3 50.6 42.3 98.6 60.3 49.5 32.3 43.6 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 63.6 63.3 50.1 101.8 60.1 49.8 43.4 52.4 85.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 39.9 43.7 38.9 107.0 62.5 51.3 26.3 33.2 51.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 62.9 66.9 35.8 103.1 60.8 50.5 39.3 52.8 73.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 44.5 43.2 36.2 102.1 58.9 51.8 23.3 40.6 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 67.6 62.8 54.4 98.4 59.5 49.7 50.1 56.8 69.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 28.4 37.0 33.6 105.9 62.6 50.1 17.1 19.3 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 40.8 39.7 35.9 102.1 58.5 50.4 25.8 37.7 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.2 42.6 35.0 95.5 56.9 48.5 23.6 40.7 57.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 64.7 70.5 56.4 98.8 59.5 48.6 42.9 56.6 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 32.7 65.9 37.6 96.8 59.8 48.6 31.4 49.9 67.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 55.7 58.8 57.0 105.0 59.4 51.4 41.0 49.8 65.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 51.8 51.0 39.4 94.2 57.3 48.3 32.5 44.8 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 34.3 56.7 40.1 99.8 60.2 50.8 40.8 48.7 72.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 48.2 53.1 42.6 100.9 60.9 50.7 34.3 41.7 62.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 61.4 63.7 50.8 97.5 59.0 49.3 44.0 58.3 67.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 31.3 46.5 41.9 95.7 57.1 48.5 27.6 44.0 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 39.3 51.0 32.3 109.6 63.1 54.8 21.2 32.1 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 29.8 44.4 38.7 87.7 54.3 45.6 25.2 43.2 55.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.5 49.5 36.6 101.1 60.4 49.0 26.0 41.7 56.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 81.7 82.0 60.0 102.1 59.9 50.7 64.3 74.2 94.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 24.3 35.0 35.1 92.0 56.1 46.8 25.4 32.5 62.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------