***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.9 6.0 80.3 65.1 48.1 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.2 5.3 78.7 64.8 49.4 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.5 6.4 85.2 66.9 48.8 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.0 14.3 6.3 78.5 67.0 45.0 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.9 13.6 6.0 84.1 67.9 44.8 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.8 11.8 7.9 94.6 70.7 45.4 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 5.8 4.8 72.0 62.5 48.6 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 18.9 6.6 77.7 63.7 44.9 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.5 10.3 6.6 87.2 67.9 46.2 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.6 7.3 80.3 64.9 45.6 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.2 16.0 5.4 84.0 69.0 45.4 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.3 9.0 5.0 79.1 66.6 45.1 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 17.6 5.4 78.1 70.2 45.7 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.2 8.5 79.3 64.2 48.4 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.4 9.7 5.8 95.4 72.0 46.6 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.6 13.7 5.8 85.4 69.5 45.3 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.0 5.1 68.4 63.8 50.1 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.2 8.7 78.9 61.8 46.7 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 16.6 6.3 87.5 65.9 49.3 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 14.0 8.9 81.6 58.2 47.0 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.8 20.8 6.0 80.1 67.2 45.2 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.0 7.0 81.9 66.2 50.8 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 13.2 7.1 90.9 65.1 47.5 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.6 7.8 78.6 63.6 48.5 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.9 15.1 6.1 75.1 66.9 45.9 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 16.4 4.5 81.6 72.2 46.4 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.9 6.1 76.4 64.9 46.4 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.8 11.0 6.8 94.2 70.5 46.3 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.7 22.1 9.6 83.9 61.8 48.0 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.7 5.6 81.5 64.0 48.4 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------