***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.0 6.7 70.2 60.5 47.6 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.5 7.9 99.8 67.6 52.1 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.6 20.6 7.6 79.0 63.8 51.3 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 17.7 6.7 71.8 62.6 47.5 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.4 5.9 64.9 60.1 45.7 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.1 14.0 7.9 87.1 66.0 47.9 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.6 15.7 7.7 101.3 68.3 51.7 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.3 15.0 6.1 63.6 57.1 42.8 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.9 5.8 56.0 55.1 44.5 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.1 6.6 57.8 54.1 43.2 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.9 8.6 5.0 64.2 60.9 45.9 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.7 12.1 4.8 66.4 61.2 43.0 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.1 7.2 5.7 74.9 64.9 45.9 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 19.0 9.9 79.1 60.3 48.8 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 8.0 5.1 66.8 65.0 48.0 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.8 5.2 69.6 63.0 46.6 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.3 25.1 8.8 115.3 71.2 52.4 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.9 8.4 62.8 55.0 42.5 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.4 17.0 7.8 92.8 65.8 52.1 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.0 8.5 69.7 56.3 41.7 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.8 6.3 62.8 59.3 45.4 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.8 20.8 9.3 105.6 68.7 53.2 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.6 13.2 7.7 84.4 63.8 51.6 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.7 11.8 8.3 69.3 58.4 46.2 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.7 7.5 71.6 61.0 45.3 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.3 14.2 4.2 70.3 64.9 44.5 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.0 7.1 68.7 60.3 46.6 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.5 13.3 5.6 66.3 64.4 47.9 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 18.4 9.7 70.8 56.2 44.1 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.9 16.6 7.5 90.8 67.4 51.5 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------