***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.3 9.2 77.2 56.3 42.6 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.5 8.6 77.7 55.5 46.8 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.8 12.4 98.2 62.2 51.7 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.0 11.2 101.2 66.8 48.9 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 21.1 12.5 107.2 68.5 49.4 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.4 11.1 80.9 58.6 44.4 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.2 8.1 71.6 54.6 44.6 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.4 24.4 13.5 107.3 68.1 50.4 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.4 13.3 105.0 67.7 50.5 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.1 13.6 99.9 65.1 47.7 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.2 11.1 12.4 106.7 68.2 50.0 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.6 19.7 11.3 105.5 68.2 50.2 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.8 7.1 8.2 75.0 62.8 42.5 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.8 16.0 102.0 64.8 50.0 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.0 8.5 9.7 97.7 67.1 49.2 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.2 5.4 9.9 91.7 63.7 45.9 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.0 9.0 78.6 56.5 46.9 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.7 16.2 101.4 63.3 49.2 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.4 12.2 9.8 86.5 58.0 48.4 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.8 15.1 96.6 62.1 47.0 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.7 12.7 100.9 66.7 48.7 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.9 15.7 11.9 101.8 63.9 54.9 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.1 12.2 99.5 64.4 51.7 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.4 13.1 14.9 99.0 63.6 49.2 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.4 13.8 105.4 67.0 49.3 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.1 8.0 9.3 88.2 60.7 47.2 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.0 11.7 88.5 60.8 46.9 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.8 9.7 93.5 65.2 46.7 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.4 18.8 17.8 103.1 63.2 50.3 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.9 9.3 82.1 57.1 46.9 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------