***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.7 12.4 99.4 63.6 53.0 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 14.0 13.0 117.0 69.1 53.3 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.1 15.3 14.1 112.6 67.6 55.7 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.4 18.3 13.6 124.9 70.8 58.9 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 12.8 16.8 16.7 154.1 77.2 64.7 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 10.4 16.9 16.7 150.4 74.1 61.9 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.4 12.7 120.2 70.6 54.0 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 22.5 33.9 21.0 148.1 75.3 63.4 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.4 20.9 16.5 135.0 71.8 60.7 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 23.2 29.7 22.6 149.4 75.8 63.4 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.3 18.8 16.2 152.5 77.5 64.7 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.8 19.6 14.7 140.7 74.6 62.2 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 13.2 18.6 16.9 169.8 78.4 69.8 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.9 24.7 19.9 121.9 70.7 56.0 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.4 10.6 13.0 159.2 77.7 59.5 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 14.3 17.1 15.0 148.8 76.3 65.3 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.5 10.0 12.1 119.9 69.7 51.6 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 21.1 28.6 23.0 138.6 73.0 61.2 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.6 13.7 114.9 68.2 53.6 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 26.3 29.2 24.5 162.4 75.8 67.2 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 9.4 13.1 14.4 123.1 68.9 58.3 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.6 11.8 107.4 65.5 50.0 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.5 17.2 15.6 119.9 69.8 55.7 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.3 24.8 19.6 131.5 72.1 59.3 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.8 11.5 14.5 119.8 69.5 57.0 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 14.9 19.9 14.4 194.7 81.7 70.6 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 13.6 13.8 110.1 66.4 54.2 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.6 16.4 14.5 143.1 74.3 60.4 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.7 32.5 22.9 139.8 72.2 62.2 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 10.6 12.6 108.7 66.1 53.5 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------