***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.5 29.2 -0.7 38.7 40.4 28.5 28.6 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 27.6 27.9 28.9 -1.0 30.0 34.6 28.2 28.8 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 27.6 28.1 29.2 -1.0 32.2 35.8 28.2 28.9 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.3 27.4 0.1 54.1 52.7 21.5 22.1 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 27.9 28.8 27.2 -1.0 30.6 34.1 28.9 29.5 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.9 25.2 -0.2 46.1 47.7 27.6 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.4 29.1 -0.7 38.0 40.2 28.1 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 16.3 16.4 25.2 -1.2 30.2 31.6 16.5 17.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.5 28.3 27.5 -1.1 30.9 34.0 28.3 29.0 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 27.4 27.8 25.9 -1.0 32.6 34.7 27.8 28.7 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.1 27.1 -1.3 27.6 29.7 28.3 29.0 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.6 -1.3 27.6 28.9 27.3 28.0 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.3 26.3 -1.4 26.1 27.5 28.8 29.4 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.6 27.6 26.9 -1.1 31.4 33.7 27.7 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.3 30.0 0.5 64.3 59.6 29.5 30.0 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.8 29.3 26.9 -1.0 31.3 33.4 29.4 30.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.6 28.8 -0.9 32.0 35.9 27.6 28.3 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.2 25.1 -0.9 34.0 35.3 27.1 27.7 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.6 28.9 -1.2 28.6 33.2 27.8 28.4 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.7 22.8 22.8 -0.9 32.4 33.9 22.8 23.5 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 27.4 28.5 28.4 -1.0 32.8 35.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.0 28.9 -0.6 37.5 39.7 27.8 28.5 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 27.4 28.0 28.9 -1.1 30.7 34.1 28.1 28.5 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 27.1 27.6 27.0 -1.0 31.5 33.8 27.7 28.3 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.9 28.8 27.6 -0.7 38.5 39.6 28.6 29.4 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.4 26.7 -0.8 35.0 35.7 28.4 28.8 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.5 28.2 28.3 -0.6 40.3 41.2 28.1 28.5 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.2 28.4 0.2 57.3 54.6 29.4 30.0 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 21.9 22.5 24.0 -1.0 31.7 33.0 22.6 23.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 27.5 28.2 29.1 -0.9 33.7 36.8 28.1 28.8 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------