***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.8 30.7 -0.1 51.5 50.0 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 27.9 29.4 30.3 -0.5 43.8 45.4 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.3 30.8 -0.3 47.8 48.3 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.2 24.1 29.3 0.7 62.4 58.2 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.7 28.7 -0.4 45.9 47.3 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.2 26.6 0.3 57.3 55.3 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 30.3 29.7 30.5 -0.2 47.8 48.6 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.0 27.0 -0.5 44.2 46.0 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.0 28.7 -0.4 46.1 47.1 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.4 28.7 27.5 -0.3 46.9 48.0 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.0 28.6 28.5 -0.6 43.2 45.1 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.7 28.5 -0.6 42.8 44.6 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.1 28.7 27.4 -0.6 42.0 44.4 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.8 28.0 28.0 -0.6 41.1 44.2 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 31.7 32.3 31.0 1.1 68.8 62.3 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.8 30.3 28.3 -0.3 47.5 48.2 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.6 30.0 -0.4 43.0 45.1 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.5 27.9 26.8 -0.2 47.0 48.6 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 29.0 30.4 -0.6 42.7 44.5 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.6 24.2 -0.4 45.4 47.0 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.0 29.0 29.7 -0.4 47.5 47.7 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.7 30.1 -0.3 45.2 46.6 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.6 30.4 -0.6 42.9 44.5 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.6 28.4 -0.3 44.9 47.2 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 30.9 30.7 28.8 -0.1 51.9 50.4 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.3 28.8 0.0 50.4 51.0 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.5 29.6 -0.1 51.7 50.6 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.8 32.1 29.9 0.9 65.9 60.3 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.4 25.6 -0.4 44.6 46.8 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.5 30.5 -0.3 47.3 47.5 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------