***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.2 29.9 -0.2 48.3 49.4 27.6 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.4 29.4 -0.6 46.0 46.2 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.7 28.8 30.0 -0.3 46.8 48.1 27.8 29.3 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.3 28.7 0.8 61.6 58.2 21.4 22.3 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.4 29.9 28.1 -0.2 46.5 47.7 28.1 30.1 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 27.5 29.2 26.2 0.7 60.5 56.5 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.5 29.7 -0.3 48.9 49.5 27.6 28.5 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.8 26.4 -0.2 44.5 47.4 16.7 18.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.4 28.1 -0.3 45.6 47.5 27.5 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.1 26.9 -0.1 47.4 49.0 27.8 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.8 27.8 -0.4 42.1 45.2 27.8 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.7 27.9 -0.4 41.8 44.9 27.5 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.8 29.2 26.8 -0.4 41.1 44.5 28.3 30.1 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.8 27.3 -0.5 47.6 46.7 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.6 31.8 30.5 1.3 69.4 63.1 29.3 30.5 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.9 30.2 27.6 -0.1 44.9 47.7 28.9 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.8 29.2 -0.6 43.7 46.5 27.4 27.9 30.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.4 26.2 0.0 49.5 50.5 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.2 29.5 -0.7 44.8 45.3 27.7 28.2 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.2 23.7 0.0 47.9 50.0 23.1 24.3 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.4 29.0 -0.3 46.8 47.7 27.4 29.5 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.0 29.3 -0.4 46.4 47.8 27.2 28.3 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.2 29.6 -0.6 45.1 45.7 27.7 28.4 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.6 27.6 -0.3 49.1 48.5 27.1 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 27.9 29.8 28.1 0.0 51.4 50.3 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.5 30.0 28.2 0.3 50.9 52.8 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.8 28.9 0.0 50.8 50.5 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 31.4 31.4 29.4 1.0 64.4 60.3 28.7 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.4 25.0 -0.1 48.8 49.7 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.7 29.7 -0.4 46.8 47.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------