***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.2 29.1 -0.1 52.6 50.8 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 27.4 28.3 28.9 -0.3 48.8 47.4 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.2 29.0 -0.3 47.6 47.5 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.7 27.2 0.7 64.5 60.4 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.6 27.2 -0.3 46.3 47.7 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.0 28.1 25.3 0.4 57.4 57.1 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.3 29.1 0.1 53.4 52.0 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 25.1 -0.4 46.3 46.3 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 27.2 27.9 27.7 -0.3 45.7 47.4 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.8 25.9 -0.3 47.7 48.3 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.0 27.3 -0.6 43.8 44.7 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.5 26.6 -0.6 44.6 44.5 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.5 26.6 -0.7 41.6 43.4 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.7 28.3 27.1 -0.2 50.3 48.2 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.6 30.1 1.1 70.1 64.7 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.5 27.0 -0.4 46.9 47.1 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.1 28.8 -0.1 51.6 49.5 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 25.9 27.0 25.1 -0.1 49.1 49.7 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.9 28.0 28.9 -0.4 47.1 46.3 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.9 22.8 -0.1 49.2 49.2 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.3 28.5 -0.3 47.9 48.0 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.6 28.9 0.2 55.7 52.6 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.1 28.9 -0.3 50.0 47.7 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 26.5 27.4 27.1 -0.3 47.9 48.0 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 27.7 28.8 27.6 -0.1 52.3 50.2 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.2 26.6 -0.2 48.0 48.5 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.5 28.3 28.3 0.0 53.6 51.2 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 30.7 30.8 28.3 0.8 65.8 61.6 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.5 24.1 -0.1 49.5 49.2 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.3 29.1 -0.2 51.5 48.7 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------