***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 26.3 25.5 27.1 -2.4 18.3 25.7 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 25.7 25.1 27.1 -2.8 16.1 22.3 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 25.5 25.1 26.8 -3.0 16.4 21.2 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 19.0 18.7 24.5 -1.8 27.5 31.5 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 26.2 25.6 24.7 -3.2 13.3 18.6 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 25.2 24.6 23.0 -2.2 19.8 25.8 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 25.8 25.4 27.2 -2.3 18.6 26.2 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 13.9 13.5 22.2 -3.5 11.2 15.6 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 25.7 25.3 25.6 -3.2 13.4 18.2 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 25.3 24.9 23.2 -3.4 12.5 17.3 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 25.7 25.2 24.9 -3.7 11.6 15.3 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 25.0 24.4 23.5 -3.7 9.9 14.2 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 25.9 25.0 24.4 -3.8 9.8 13.3 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 25.6 25.5 25.2 -3.0 16.7 20.7 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.3 -1.4 33.1 36.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 26.6 26.0 24.7 -3.3 12.5 17.0 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 25.2 24.7 27.0 -2.4 18.1 24.2 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 24.5 24.1 22.3 -3.3 12.7 18.1 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 25.2 24.7 26.9 -2.9 16.0 21.2 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 20.1 19.5 20.3 -3.1 12.5 18.1 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 25.7 25.2 26.5 -3.0 15.6 19.8 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 25.9 26.0 27.1 -2.0 22.2 28.4 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 25.4 25.0 26.8 -3.0 17.4 22.1 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 24.9 24.5 24.8 -3.3 14.1 18.6 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 26.1 25.7 25.8 -2.5 18.0 23.8 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 25.5 24.7 23.3 -3.5 11.9 15.5 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 25.7 25.3 26.6 -2.2 18.8 25.9 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 27.5 27.0 26.0 -1.8 26.7 31.0 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 19.3 18.9 21.5 -3.3 12.6 17.8 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 25.6 24.8 27.1 -2.7 16.6 23.2 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------