***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.9 18.8 -0.7 34.9 40.4 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 14.4 15.1 18.6 -0.8 33.9 38.5 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 16.5 17.0 19.1 -0.6 35.4 40.9 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.2 13.4 16.9 0.0 50.1 49.6 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.7 16.4 -0.6 33.0 40.2 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.0 15.0 0.0 51.8 52.4 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 15.1 15.7 18.8 -0.6 36.0 40.3 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.8 8.3 14.3 -0.6 33.4 40.0 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.8 16.3 -0.6 32.2 39.9 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 14.5 15.1 14.9 -0.5 34.8 40.6 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 13.9 14.7 16.0 -0.7 31.8 38.5 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.5 15.2 -0.6 32.7 39.4 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.1 14.4 -0.5 37.0 42.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 15.2 15.5 16.3 -0.6 35.2 40.4 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.7 18.7 0.3 59.4 54.4 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.5 15.4 -0.4 39.2 43.6 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 15.3 16.0 18.3 -0.7 34.3 39.3 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.5 14.0 -0.4 38.5 42.2 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 14.9 14.8 18.6 -0.8 34.1 38.5 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.6 9.7 11.7 -0.4 34.2 41.5 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.8 -0.6 33.5 40.3 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 14.5 15.0 18.4 -0.5 39.6 41.9 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 14.2 14.5 18.6 -0.7 34.3 39.5 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.7 16.2 -0.5 38.1 42.0 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.5 17.2 -0.6 33.3 40.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 14.6 -0.1 48.8 49.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.2 17.9 -0.6 35.4 41.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.2 17.5 0.2 56.9 53.2 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.5 13.5 -0.5 35.4 40.8 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 14.7 15.1 18.9 -0.7 34.3 39.8 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------