***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.7 18.5 -0.3 44.6 45.0 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.2 18.3 -0.5 41.9 43.3 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.6 17.3 18.9 -0.2 48.0 46.7 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.3 14.1 16.8 0.4 62.2 56.6 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.8 16.2 -0.2 45.7 46.7 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.5 15.0 0.5 66.5 61.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.7 18.5 -0.3 43.4 45.0 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 14.1 -0.2 46.3 47.4 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.5 16.2 -0.2 45.6 46.0 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 14.8 -0.1 48.1 48.1 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.5 15.8 -0.2 43.4 45.9 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.0 15.0 -0.2 44.6 46.7 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.1 14.0 14.4 0.1 51.2 51.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.1 -0.3 45.8 45.6 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 17.7 17.3 18.7 0.8 69.8 62.8 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.4 15.4 0.1 51.7 51.7 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 15.6 15.9 18.1 -0.5 41.5 43.2 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.1 14.0 0.1 52.5 51.2 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.2 18.4 -0.5 41.9 43.2 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.3 11.8 0.1 52.6 52.6 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.3 15.1 17.6 -0.3 46.7 45.4 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.2 18.1 -0.4 43.6 44.5 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.5 18.4 -0.4 43.5 44.4 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 16.1 -0.1 50.3 48.6 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.9 17.0 -0.2 46.1 45.8 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.1 14.5 0.4 59.2 56.0 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.8 17.7 -0.3 44.7 45.2 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.5 17.4 0.7 67.3 61.0 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 13.4 0.0 50.5 50.9 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.1 15.8 18.6 -0.4 43.6 44.5 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------