***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2020.-19.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.0 18.1 -0.3 47.1 48.1 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.2 18.0 -0.3 49.3 47.4 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.5 16.9 18.3 -0.3 47.4 47.6 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.2 16.1 0.3 58.5 56.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.6 16.1 -0.3 47.3 47.3 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.4 14.1 0.2 55.1 55.7 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.4 18.1 -0.2 48.2 48.6 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.7 13.6 -0.2 48.8 48.3 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 14.8 16.1 -0.3 48.3 47.7 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.9 14.5 -0.2 50.0 49.2 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.6 15.6 -0.4 42.9 44.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.3 12.7 14.6 -0.4 44.2 45.2 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 14.3 -0.4 39.9 43.9 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.9 16.1 0.0 54.4 52.4 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.0 18.3 0.4 61.6 60.1 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.9 15.2 -0.3 42.9 45.4 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 17.8 -0.2 51.0 48.2 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.3 13.8 -0.1 51.8 51.5 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 18.0 -0.3 48.1 47.4 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.4 11.9 0.0 51.5 52.1 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.5 17.4 -0.3 48.7 47.5 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 18.0 0.0 53.6 50.8 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.9 18.1 -0.2 49.9 49.9 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.5 15.9 -0.1 51.3 49.9 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.1 16.9 -0.3 48.0 47.9 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.0 13.9 -0.1 47.7 49.5 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 17.5 -0.2 47.7 48.3 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.5 16.7 0.3 58.4 57.1 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.3 13.2 0.0 52.0 52.6 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.5 18.2 -0.3 47.8 47.9 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------