***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.5 17.7 -0.9 28.0 34.9 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 13.4 13.8 17.4 -1.1 27.8 31.9 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 15.5 15.2 17.7 -1.1 23.0 30.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.8 15.7 -0.3 47.2 44.1 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 12.8 12.7 16.0 -0.8 30.8 36.8 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 11.4 13.2 13.8 0.0 57.6 51.5 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.5 -0.9 31.5 35.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.5 13.6 -0.4 42.4 45.1 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.1 16.3 -0.6 35.0 39.3 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.2 14.5 -0.4 41.3 43.2 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.0 -0.5 39.8 42.1 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.4 11.7 14.7 -0.6 38.1 41.8 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.6 15.1 -0.3 47.2 46.8 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.7 -0.8 27.6 36.4 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.0 18.3 0.2 65.9 57.2 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 13.7 15.0 15.5 -0.6 39.0 41.2 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 14.5 14.5 17.1 -1.0 27.9 31.8 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.6 -0.6 34.3 40.1 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 13.6 13.9 17.4 -1.1 25.3 30.8 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.2 11.9 -0.5 36.1 42.5 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.4 17.2 -0.8 31.0 35.4 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 13.7 13.8 17.4 -0.9 28.2 32.6 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 13.3 13.6 17.4 -1.1 24.7 31.4 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 14.1 14.1 15.7 -0.9 27.4 35.5 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.8 -0.8 29.4 35.9 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.5 14.0 -0.3 46.6 46.7 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 13.4 14.0 17.2 -0.8 31.7 36.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.1 14.2 16.4 -0.2 52.3 48.0 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.6 11.0 13.0 -0.5 35.7 41.9 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 14.0 13.9 17.7 -1.1 28.0 32.6 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------