***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 21.4 20.4 11.0 33.4 23.6 21.9 22.6 28.4 55.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 23.0 19.8 12.1 33.8 18.8 20.6 31.8 40.5 57.3 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 22.9 23.8 11.6 35.4 25.5 22.5 31.3 43.2 53.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 27.5 45.7 16.6 60.3 42.0 32.1 33.6 53.1 73.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 21.9 35.0 16.9 55.9 42.4 30.1 28.6 40.5 67.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 27.3 47.6 24.8 63.5 39.9 32.3 39.7 52.2 70.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 18.1 15.1 11.8 32.2 15.9 18.2 21.2 29.7 46.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 47.3 55.2 21.0 59.4 40.4 32.4 54.4 63.1 102.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 22.9 36.0 17.0 52.9 37.9 29.7 32.3 43.6 55.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 29.2 44.5 20.7 55.1 38.5 30.2 43.4 52.4 85.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 19.5 31.3 15.0 58.1 44.2 32.1 26.3 33.2 51.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.8 48.9 15.1 59.7 43.7 32.8 39.3 52.8 73.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 23.0 27.0 16.4 59.3 40.1 30.9 23.3 40.6 54.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 33.3 31.9 15.5 35.6 19.7 19.9 50.1 56.8 69.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 14.6 18.8 14.1 61.3 46.2 35.3 17.1 19.3 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 18.7 31.4 14.5 57.7 42.2 30.9 25.8 37.7 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 86 14 0 100 18.4 15.2 11.7 31.9 16.4 18.4 23.6 40.7 57.5 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 38.6 42.4 23.0 51.0 32.8 27.9 42.9 56.6 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 25.8 23.4 11.8 34.3 20.1 21.2 31.4 49.9 67.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 32.0 41.3 27.6 60.8 33.6 32.1 41.0 49.8 65.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 26.5 32.5 13.8 46.2 32.8 27.7 32.5 44.8 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 29.1 24.1 11.8 32.4 17.5 19.9 40.8 48.7 72.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 26.1 22.6 11.3 33.4 18.8 20.1 34.3 41.7 62.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 34.5 41.9 16.8 40.8 27.4 23.5 44.0 58.3 67.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 25.0 27.0 16.1 45.2 28.1 24.4 27.6 44.0 54.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 20.2 25.3 15.2 67.3 40.4 34.7 21.2 32.1 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 24.1 21.7 13.9 36.3 22.2 20.9 25.2 43.2 55.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 21.7 36.9 15.1 62.5 45.4 34.1 26.0 41.7 56.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 52.4 62.6 23.5 52.1 31.5 27.7 64.3 74.2 94.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 21.1 20.4 11.9 33.8 19.9 20.9 25.4 32.5 62.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------