***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.7 24.1 2.9 53.9 74.3 48.1 0.9 3.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.6 14.3 2.7 62.6 69.2 49.1 2.1 5.5 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.8 8.5 2.8 55.8 67.0 45.7 0.7 4.5 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 1.8 20.8 3.4 81.3 73.8 46.7 1.0 4.2 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.8 14.9 3.8 78.0 75.5 43.6 0.6 4.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.6 12.1 5.2 72.7 70.9 45.9 0.2 3.9 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 6.7 2.7 57.1 68.8 47.8 0.9 2.0 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.0 21.0 4.9 87.1 71.6 48.5 2.0 10.9 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.2 15.6 3.9 74.3 74.8 44.1 0.3 3.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.5 22.1 4.7 81.0 74.1 45.5 2.1 7.9 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.3 24.8 3.6 93.9 76.6 49.1 1.1 5.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 1.2 17.4 3.5 90.6 73.5 49.9 0.5 2.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 15.8 3.6 77.7 69.0 46.4 0.8 5.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 1.7 14.6 3.2 54.9 68.2 44.9 0.9 4.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.3 13.5 2.8 111.9 78.0 46.5 0.2 3.0 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.6 16.1 3.3 90.4 73.7 48.0 1.3 3.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.0 2.7 67.6 68.6 50.3 0.4 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.1 23.5 5.1 70.2 69.5 42.4 0.6 10.9 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.8 16.9 2.6 64.7 68.6 48.3 0.1 3.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 19.2 6.5 89.1 66.8 46.6 5.5 9.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.4 24.8 3.3 66.1 74.3 45.3 2.3 6.3 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.0 2.4 60.6 69.2 48.1 0.5 6.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 0.7 15.2 2.5 61.7 69.1 50.5 0.2 1.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.0 16.8 3.6 56.8 69.2 43.7 2.4 10.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.5 18.2 3.9 65.7 71.9 44.6 0.3 3.6 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 14.6 2.8 80.0 69.8 47.2 1.6 4.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 17.4 3.7 59.3 72.8 46.1 0.4 2.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.8 17.1 3.0 105.2 76.9 47.9 0.8 4.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 26.4 5.3 77.1 66.8 44.0 6.3 11.8 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.4 2.8 59.0 68.3 48.8 1.4 2.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------