***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.3 4.0 67.5 62.6 45.4 1.1 4.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.1 4.6 4.7 64.3 58.0 42.1 0.9 2.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.3 20.5 4.8 72.8 63.7 42.8 1.4 7.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 26.9 6.6 105.1 72.7 47.0 4.2 6.7 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.1 20.9 6.9 98.3 72.1 46.8 0.4 2.5 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.5 10.0 92.7 66.7 49.2 0.7 7.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.5 13.7 4.4 60.0 59.6 40.9 1.7 5.3 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.7 21.0 8.9 97.0 67.3 47.0 2.5 9.9 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.4 19.1 6.8 91.6 70.6 44.0 0.5 3.8 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.6 27.2 9.0 96.9 68.3 46.0 3.1 11.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.1 17.0 6.6 103.3 72.2 50.5 0.8 4.3 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.1 15.5 6.3 98.9 70.8 48.5 0.2 6.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.1 10.9 6.8 93.2 73.7 50.1 0.9 2.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.6 19.1 7.3 70.3 60.3 41.1 1.8 9.4 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.1 11.5 5.5 111.9 79.6 50.1 0.8 2.3 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.3 10.2 6.2 96.6 72.8 50.1 2.1 4.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.0 8.2 4.4 53.6 57.1 41.0 1.7 4.6 20.6 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.3 17.9 9.8 83.5 63.2 42.9 4.4 8.6 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.8 12.4 4.7 66.6 59.4 42.3 2.5 7.2 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.5 10.7 90.8 64.7 45.5 2.9 7.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.0 20.6 5.5 92.6 65.5 45.1 0.5 4.7 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.4 4.5 55.7 56.1 40.8 3.2 5.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.0 11.6 4.8 68.2 60.4 41.3 1.6 5.4 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.1 13.3 7.5 74.7 60.6 42.0 0.6 7.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.1 13.6 6.1 89.3 66.8 44.9 1.0 4.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 16.8 5.6 108.5 68.9 48.9 0.1 5.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 14.4 5.2 71.1 63.1 43.9 3.0 7.0 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 29.1 6.2 109.1 76.5 48.6 2.2 5.0 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.4 23.4 9.9 82.3 61.6 42.0 4.2 12.3 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.1 14.0 4.5 66.2 60.9 42.4 3.0 8.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------