***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.0 7.1 1.7 25.6 45.6 31.5 4.0 9.5 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 2.7 6.1 2.5 28.7 40.7 29.5 2.9 9.1 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.9 7.0 2.1 28.5 45.0 28.7 4.5 7.4 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.5 9.8 2.8 46.7 56.8 31.8 4.2 8.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 4.1 11.7 3.0 44.3 49.3 25.5 5.6 11.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 1.3 3.6 4.3 40.1 46.2 25.7 1.3 4.4 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 2.5 4.5 2.4 27.0 40.4 28.1 3.5 6.3 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 5.1 9.0 3.2 34.3 39.6 27.5 7.8 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 2.1 8.4 3.3 46.0 50.3 23.6 4.0 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 3.0 7.6 3.5 38.8 41.9 26.8 6.0 9.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 1.7 4.8 2.3 37.4 45.5 29.3 2.2 5.0 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.7 3.5 1.8 28.9 39.8 25.3 0.8 13.4 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.1 1.4 2.3 32.2 40.4 24.6 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.9 3.0 29.1 39.9 28.7 2.3 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 1.4 6.7 2.5 46.1 57.9 31.1 1.4 4.3 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 0.8 1.8 1.9 30.3 40.7 24.0 1.3 2.2 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.5 6.2 2.3 26.4 43.4 29.8 3.8 8.1 12.5 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 3.7 5.9 4.2 37.1 38.0 23.9 4.8 11.8 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 3.9 5.3 2.3 29.2 43.1 29.9 3.5 9.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 3.3 6.9 5.6 44.5 40.1 28.6 4.9 9.3 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 2.6 7.9 2.5 42.1 51.2 23.6 5.7 7.6 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.7 7.5 2.7 31.8 45.1 26.9 4.1 8.9 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.4 2.1 28.2 44.4 29.6 3.9 8.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.3 5.2 3.0 31.2 40.6 24.4 4.4 7.7 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.4 7.0 2.3 31.6 45.4 23.5 4.4 7.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 1.4 5.4 2.3 44.7 51.9 28.9 0.4 5.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.9 6.7 2.0 24.7 41.3 25.7 3.5 8.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.8 8.4 2.4 43.4 54.6 29.5 2.7 7.4 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 6.3 11.3 4.3 37.0 35.1 23.9 10.0 14.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.7 6.3 2.4 28.1 42.5 29.6 3.9 7.7 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------