***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 1.1 1.7 2.4 16.2 30.3 21.6 2.1 4.7 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 0.9 1.1 2.2 14.3 22.0 17.4 2.3 5.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 1.6 2.6 2.1 14.6 23.1 17.6 5.4 7.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 7.9 3.9 34.6 38.3 30.3 6.1 9.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 2.2 3.8 3.2 27.9 30.9 24.5 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.2 7.7 5.2 50.9 45.4 35.6 4.5 8.6 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.4 2.3 14.5 23.2 16.5 1.2 5.9 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.3 14.5 4.1 37.1 37.4 29.7 12.3 19.3 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 1.9 4.0 3.0 24.5 26.9 22.5 5.0 7.8 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 6.0 7.7 3.4 25.9 29.5 23.0 8.3 12.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.8 4.0 2.5 26.7 32.1 25.8 4.4 10.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.2 3.5 40.5 42.6 33.2 4.9 10.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.4 4.2 3.6 42.9 42.2 30.8 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 3.6 2.3 2.0 11.9 15.4 13.2 5.7 11.8 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.3 3.3 32.2 39.9 31.2 1.8 4.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 4.0 6.6 3.1 35.9 36.5 28.2 4.4 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.2 2.3 14.8 21.0 15.5 1.0 3.1 6.7 29 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 6.9 6.7 4.0 27.0 27.9 21.3 9.5 19.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 1.8 1.9 2.1 14.0 22.9 17.6 2.3 8.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.8 7.7 4.7 34.7 29.3 24.9 8.3 16.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 2.4 3.0 2.6 19.9 26.3 22.1 4.3 7.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 0.6 0.3 2.2 14.2 21.9 14.5 2.7 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.2 1.9 12.5 22.8 16.7 3.5 8.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 3.3 3.7 2.8 18.5 23.6 17.2 5.0 12.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 1.3 2.9 3.7 24.3 26.1 21.2 3.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.2 4.9 4.5 51.8 46.1 37.1 2.8 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 1.7 3.5 3.1 18.6 26.4 20.3 4.4 6.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.9 3.5 35.1 38.6 30.5 2.0 6.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 10.5 11.2 4.0 27.7 25.3 20.4 15.2 23.3 30.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 0.8 1.3 2.2 14.6 24.3 18.1 1.9 5.1 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------