***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 29.8 30.1 32.5 2.6 89.6 85.3 28.5 28.6 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 29.9 30.8 33.4 3.4 92.5 90.3 28.2 28.8 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 30.0 30.5 32.5 2.5 89.0 84.5 28.2 28.9 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 22.6 22.8 29.8 1.3 75.3 72.3 21.5 22.1 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 30.2 30.5 29.9 1.5 78.2 74.2 28.9 29.5 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.7 27.0 0.9 73.2 68.7 27.6 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 29.7 31.0 33.2 3.3 93.2 90.0 28.1 28.5 29.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 17.9 18.4 28.5 1.9 84.2 79.6 16.5 17.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.2 30.7 1.9 84.5 79.2 28.3 29.0 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 29.5 30.0 29.2 2.0 84.8 79.6 27.8 28.7 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 29.7 30.0 29.5 1.5 78.0 75.1 28.3 29.0 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 28.7 29.3 29.6 1.9 82.0 79.2 27.3 28.0 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.2 28.8 1.4 76.2 73.1 28.8 29.4 29.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 29.6 30.3 30.6 2.6 90.3 85.6 27.7 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 30.7 30.8 31.0 1.6 76.3 75.3 29.5 30.0 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.8 29.1 1.2 74.4 70.8 29.4 30.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 29.5 30.6 32.7 3.1 92.4 88.6 27.6 28.3 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 28.3 28.8 28.4 2.1 85.3 81.0 27.1 27.7 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 29.5 30.3 33.3 3.3 92.9 90.3 27.8 28.4 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.0 24.6 26.1 1.7 82.3 77.4 22.8 23.5 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 29.8 30.2 31.6 2.0 83.9 79.4 28.5 29.1 29.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 29.7 30.9 32.6 3.2 93.7 89.9 27.8 28.5 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 29.6 30.6 32.9 3.2 93.0 90.1 28.1 28.5 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 29.1 29.8 30.4 2.4 88.4 83.4 27.7 28.3 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 29.9 30.2 30.6 2.1 83.9 80.5 28.6 29.4 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 29.6 29.9 28.9 1.4 79.0 75.0 28.4 28.8 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 29.5 30.0 31.6 2.6 89.1 85.4 28.1 28.5 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.7 30.1 1.1 71.5 70.2 29.4 30.0 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.9 27.4 2.1 85.9 80.6 22.6 23.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 29.7 30.3 33.3 3.2 92.1 89.3 28.1 28.8 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------