***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 30.9 31.2 32.8 1.6 70.4 65.2 28.7 29.6 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 31.0 31.5 33.3 1.8 72.8 67.6 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.1 31.1 32.7 1.5 68.4 64.0 27.8 29.6 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.5 24.0 30.4 0.5 59.8 55.7 20.4 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.7 31.0 30.3 0.8 61.4 57.3 27.7 30.0 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.4 27.8 0.8 62.3 58.0 26.2 28.6 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.3 33.1 1.9 74.7 68.0 27.9 29.9 30.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 18.9 19.3 28.9 1.3 67.3 62.5 16.1 17.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.4 30.8 30.8 1.1 63.9 60.6 27.3 29.5 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.6 30.7 29.5 1.2 65.7 61.7 27.1 28.9 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.2 30.7 29.9 0.9 62.8 59.2 26.9 29.4 31.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.4 30.1 1.3 67.6 62.4 26.4 28.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.2 30.8 29.3 1.0 62.5 59.7 27.5 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 30.6 31.3 30.7 1.5 71.5 64.7 27.1 29.2 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 31.9 32.1 31.1 0.8 62.0 57.9 28.4 30.3 32.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 30.9 31.1 29.6 0.7 58.1 56.6 27.7 30.3 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.7 32.7 1.6 71.1 65.6 27.5 29.6 30.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.5 29.9 28.8 1.4 68.5 62.7 26.0 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.7 30.8 33.3 1.8 72.7 67.5 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 25.5 26.6 1.1 64.9 60.4 22.0 23.9 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 30.1 31.0 31.8 1.1 64.0 60.8 27.6 29.5 31.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.9 30.8 32.6 1.6 71.5 66.0 28.0 29.9 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 30.5 31.0 32.9 1.8 73.6 67.5 27.3 28.9 30.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.4 30.5 30.6 1.5 70.8 64.0 26.7 29.0 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 31.0 31.1 30.8 1.2 65.6 62.2 28.1 30.5 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.8 30.4 29.6 1.1 64.9 61.0 27.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.3 31.9 1.6 70.3 65.9 27.5 29.5 30.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.3 31.7 30.6 0.4 56.9 54.7 27.9 30.4 32.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.4 27.8 1.3 67.6 62.1 21.2 23.7 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.4 33.4 1.8 72.3 67.4 27.8 29.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------