***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 30.8 32.5 32.6 2.4 84.1 71.4 27.6 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 30.9 33.0 33.1 2.9 86.8 74.2 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.6 31.2 32.5 2.3 81.8 70.5 27.8 29.3 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.9 24.0 30.2 1.3 71.5 62.6 21.4 22.3 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.1 31.5 30.2 1.5 73.5 64.4 28.1 30.1 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 29.6 30.1 27.6 1.2 71.3 62.4 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 30.6 32.4 32.9 2.9 85.4 74.3 27.6 28.5 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.8 28.9 2.1 79.9 69.0 16.7 18.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.2 30.7 1.9 76.9 67.4 27.5 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.9 29.4 2.0 77.9 68.0 27.8 29.3 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.5 29.8 1.6 76.3 65.7 27.8 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 30.0 30.9 30.1 2.0 80.1 68.9 27.5 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.4 29.2 1.5 73.5 64.7 28.3 30.1 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 30.6 31.6 30.4 2.4 80.6 71.0 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.6 32.1 31.0 1.5 75.0 65.2 29.3 30.5 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 31.8 31.7 29.4 1.2 70.5 62.3 28.9 30.5 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.5 32.4 2.7 84.1 72.8 27.4 27.9 30.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.1 28.6 2.1 77.9 68.3 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.2 32.4 33.1 2.9 86.3 74.2 27.7 28.2 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 25.5 26.1 26.4 1.8 76.6 66.3 23.1 24.3 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.3 31.6 1.9 76.7 67.4 27.4 29.5 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.6 32.2 32.3 2.7 84.9 73.3 27.2 28.3 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 30.4 32.1 32.6 2.8 85.2 74.1 27.7 28.4 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.6 30.4 2.3 79.0 69.7 27.1 28.7 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.6 30.6 2.0 79.5 68.4 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.2 29.5 1.6 74.2 65.7 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.5 31.6 2.4 83.4 71.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.5 32.0 30.5 1.2 69.2 61.7 28.7 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 25.2 26.1 27.5 2.0 78.2 68.0 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 30.5 32.9 33.2 2.8 86.0 73.9 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------