***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 30.6 31.8 32.9 3.6 88.9 85.0 27.4 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 30.3 32.6 34.0 4.6 92.6 89.2 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 30.5 31.7 33.0 3.5 87.6 84.7 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 23.0 23.3 30.2 2.1 76.3 74.0 21.0 21.5 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.0 30.4 2.4 79.1 76.1 28.1 28.6 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.7 28.7 27.2 1.5 71.6 69.4 26.6 27.6 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 30.6 32.4 33.7 4.4 92.6 88.7 27.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 18.0 19.8 29.1 2.9 85.8 81.0 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 30.0 31.6 31.1 2.9 83.6 80.1 27.4 28.0 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 29.4 31.2 29.7 2.9 85.9 80.8 27.3 27.9 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.0 29.9 2.5 80.6 77.3 27.7 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 29.0 30.4 30.2 2.9 84.1 80.3 27.0 27.7 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 30.0 30.7 29.1 2.2 80.6 75.1 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 29.8 31.3 31.2 3.7 90.4 86.0 27.2 28.3 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.2 31.0 2.4 80.3 76.4 29.0 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.7 29.3 1.9 77.4 72.7 28.7 29.5 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 30.2 31.8 33.3 4.3 91.3 88.1 26.9 28.0 29.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 28.5 30.8 29.2 3.2 88.8 81.9 26.6 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 30.0 31.8 34.0 4.5 92.1 89.2 27.5 28.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 24.4 25.9 26.8 2.8 86.3 79.9 22.0 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 30.5 31.5 31.9 2.9 84.0 80.6 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.8 33.2 4.4 91.4 89.1 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 29.9 32.1 33.4 4.4 91.4 89.0 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 29.6 31.1 31.0 3.4 89.1 83.7 26.8 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 30.2 32.1 30.8 3.0 86.2 81.3 27.9 28.7 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.3 29.5 2.4 83.0 76.4 27.7 28.3 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 29.9 31.9 32.0 3.6 89.6 85.2 27.0 28.0 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.1 30.4 1.9 75.1 72.1 28.7 29.9 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 24.0 26.7 28.1 3.1 89.1 81.7 21.5 22.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 30.2 32.1 33.9 4.4 91.7 88.7 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------