***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 30.1 30.9 31.6 2.8 84.9 81.8 27.1 28.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 29.9 31.5 33.1 4.2 88.8 87.7 26.6 27.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 30.4 31.2 31.8 2.8 83.5 81.0 26.3 27.4 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.5 23.2 28.3 1.3 73.7 69.6 19.1 20.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.7 28.9 1.2 75.6 69.1 26.3 28.4 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.5 25.3 0.1 60.3 55.3 25.5 26.7 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 30.2 31.0 33.0 4.2 89.0 87.9 26.6 27.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.5 27.0 1.4 76.1 70.7 14.7 15.9 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.9 30.2 1.9 81.4 75.5 26.3 27.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 29.4 30.2 28.2 1.7 79.3 73.8 26.1 27.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 29.3 30.0 28.4 1.1 72.8 67.8 26.2 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 28.7 29.1 28.0 1.3 74.2 70.2 25.2 26.9 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 29.5 29.2 27.5 0.7 66.9 62.0 27.0 27.9 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 29.4 30.2 30.0 2.7 83.2 79.4 26.6 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 30.4 31.0 30.8 1.7 78.9 73.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 30.3 30.5 28.1 0.8 69.0 64.0 27.4 29.0 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 29.8 30.5 32.3 3.9 88.0 86.3 26.1 27.0 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 28.4 29.1 27.2 1.8 77.9 73.7 25.5 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 29.7 31.0 32.9 4.1 88.8 87.3 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 23.8 23.9 24.6 1.1 71.8 67.7 20.9 22.2 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.2 31.1 1.9 80.4 75.1 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 30.1 30.9 32.3 4.0 89.1 87.2 26.8 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 30.6 31.0 32.5 3.9 88.3 86.7 26.4 27.3 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.3 30.3 29.6 2.3 81.2 77.3 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 30.1 30.9 29.9 2.0 80.1 75.8 26.1 27.9 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 28.2 29.7 27.0 0.7 66.2 61.5 26.4 27.7 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 29.9 30.4 30.9 2.7 83.6 80.9 26.1 27.4 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.8 29.2 1.1 71.7 67.3 27.2 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 24.3 25.0 26.3 1.7 76.7 72.6 20.9 21.5 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 30.1 30.7 32.9 3.8 88.1 86.7 26.5 27.5 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------