***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 16.3 16.8 20.4 1.4 87.4 80.4 15.3 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 16.7 17.4 20.9 2.0 91.4 86.6 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.5 18.9 20.2 1.2 83.4 77.7 16.9 17.9 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.8 17.6 0.5 69.6 63.4 12.7 13.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.9 17.3 0.5 70.6 64.5 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.3 15.3 0.4 64.7 62.1 12.6 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 16.7 17.2 21.1 2.1 91.0 87.6 15.3 16.1 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.2 9.4 15.6 0.9 77.7 72.0 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.3 17.9 0.8 77.3 71.0 14.9 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.7 15.9 16.2 0.8 76.9 70.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.7 16.8 0.5 71.1 65.1 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.6 16.6 0.8 77.7 71.2 12.6 13.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.6 15.7 0.4 66.8 63.5 13.6 14.3 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.0 18.0 1.1 81.4 76.0 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.4 18.9 0.6 71.1 66.7 16.1 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 16.5 0.3 66.3 60.6 15.1 15.8 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 17.1 18.1 20.1 1.7 90.6 83.8 16.0 16.4 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.5 14.9 15.6 0.9 79.2 71.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 16.4 17.0 20.7 1.8 90.8 85.8 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 10.3 10.6 13.6 0.8 77.2 70.4 8.7 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.3 19.3 0.9 78.2 72.8 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 16.3 16.6 20.1 1.7 91.4 85.1 15.0 15.4 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 15.9 16.4 20.3 1.7 90.2 84.8 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.8 17.8 1.0 81.0 73.8 14.9 16.0 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.3 18.7 1.0 79.6 74.6 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.7 15.8 0.5 72.0 66.4 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 16.3 16.8 19.6 1.4 86.4 80.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.8 14.7 18.0 0.4 66.9 61.5 13.8 14.4 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 13.5 13.7 14.9 1.0 80.4 74.0 12.3 13.0 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 16.6 17.3 21.0 1.9 90.1 85.7 15.4 16.2 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------