***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.4 16.7 20.8 1.2 74.5 66.9 14.8 15.2 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.0 21.0 1.3 78.7 68.1 15.0 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.7 18.7 20.5 0.9 71.2 63.5 16.9 17.5 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.7 18.0 0.1 55.0 52.3 12.5 13.4 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.8 17.6 0.3 58.4 55.0 13.7 14.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.1 15.8 0.3 57.5 54.6 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.2 17.6 21.2 1.5 80.2 69.7 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.6 15.9 0.6 64.3 60.4 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.5 18.1 0.6 63.4 59.4 14.9 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 16.5 0.5 63.4 58.9 15.1 15.7 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.6 17.2 0.3 59.8 55.6 14.7 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.9 17.1 0.7 65.1 60.9 12.6 13.6 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.9 15.5 16.2 0.5 64.1 57.7 14.1 14.6 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 16.8 16.8 18.2 0.8 68.2 62.7 15.4 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.5 19.0 0.2 55.0 52.8 16.1 17.5 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.2 16.8 0.2 58.5 53.0 15.3 16.0 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.9 20.2 1.1 76.7 64.9 16.0 16.4 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.5 15.9 0.6 65.8 59.9 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.6 17.0 20.9 1.3 77.0 67.5 14.7 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.6 13.9 0.4 62.1 56.9 9.5 10.4 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.2 19.5 0.7 69.6 61.2 14.8 15.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.4 20.1 1.0 73.2 64.1 14.4 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.4 20.4 1.2 75.9 67.6 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.5 18.0 0.7 67.7 61.4 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.5 19.0 1.0 71.9 64.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.5 16.5 0.7 64.4 60.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.6 16.8 20.0 1.3 76.1 67.9 14.1 15.3 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.8 18.3 0.0 53.1 49.5 14.4 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.7 15.2 0.6 65.2 59.5 12.4 13.3 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.4 21.2 1.4 78.1 68.5 15.1 15.7 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------