***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 16.9 17.9 20.7 1.4 78.5 69.6 15.5 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 16.9 18.5 21.0 1.9 83.9 73.7 14.8 15.7 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 18.8 19.5 20.4 1.2 75.9 67.6 16.7 17.6 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.1 18.0 0.4 61.7 57.2 12.2 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.8 17.6 0.6 66.0 59.1 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.5 15.7 0.5 66.5 59.7 12.4 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 17.5 19.0 21.2 2.0 83.9 74.3 15.2 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.6 10.1 15.9 0.9 73.9 65.8 8.1 8.5 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.3 18.1 0.9 71.0 64.0 14.6 15.6 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.3 16.4 0.9 70.6 64.1 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.9 17.1 0.7 68.5 61.6 14.2 14.7 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.7 14.0 17.1 1.1 75.4 67.3 12.3 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.9 16.3 0.8 69.9 64.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.8 17.4 18.2 1.2 76.6 68.4 15.0 15.8 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.9 19.0 0.6 66.5 60.7 15.8 16.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.2 16.9 0.6 65.2 60.6 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.9 19.0 20.1 1.5 80.7 70.3 15.7 16.6 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.7 15.9 1.0 72.5 66.1 12.8 14.0 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 17.0 18.0 20.8 1.8 83.3 73.1 14.8 15.7 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.4 13.8 0.8 69.1 62.9 8.7 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 16.0 16.4 19.4 0.9 70.3 64.3 14.4 15.1 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.6 17.3 20.0 1.5 80.6 70.9 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.5 17.6 20.4 1.7 83.6 73.2 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.7 17.3 18.0 1.1 74.5 66.8 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.5 17.0 18.9 1.2 74.1 67.2 14.5 15.1 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.9 16.5 0.9 72.5 65.7 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 16.6 18.1 19.9 1.5 81.2 71.4 14.3 15.1 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.2 18.3 0.4 61.5 56.9 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.4 15.2 1.1 72.7 66.6 11.9 12.7 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 17.8 18.9 21.2 1.8 83.2 73.3 15.2 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------