***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.07.2015.-19.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 16.7 16.7 20.1 1.4 74.1 69.2 14.4 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.5 21.0 2.3 86.5 79.6 14.3 15.2 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.4 18.9 20.0 1.3 74.1 68.8 16.4 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 17.2 0.3 53.8 55.1 11.6 12.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.4 16.9 0.4 58.1 57.4 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.4 15.0 0.4 61.3 57.7 12.0 13.3 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 16.9 17.8 21.0 2.4 85.8 79.6 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.4 15.5 1.1 74.5 67.5 7.9 8.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.3 17.5 0.8 67.8 62.9 14.2 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.0 16.1 16.0 0.9 71.5 64.9 14.3 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.6 16.5 0.6 63.8 60.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.1 16.4 0.9 71.6 65.1 12.3 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.5 15.3 0.3 57.8 56.8 13.5 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.3 17.8 1.3 78.2 70.3 14.9 15.8 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.0 18.3 0.6 62.3 59.6 15.7 16.6 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 16.0 0.2 56.0 55.3 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.4 17.9 20.1 2.0 81.9 76.4 15.5 16.3 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.6 15.2 15.4 1.1 76.2 67.7 12.8 13.3 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.6 17.4 20.7 2.1 84.3 78.0 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.7 10.9 13.6 1.1 76.6 68.1 8.8 9.3 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.3 18.9 1.0 69.8 64.4 14.0 14.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.7 20.0 1.9 82.7 76.9 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.7 20.1 1.9 82.1 76.0 14.3 14.9 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.9 17.5 1.1 74.8 67.4 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.1 15.9 18.2 1.0 68.3 65.0 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.4 15.5 0.3 60.1 56.8 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.8 19.3 1.5 75.8 69.9 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.5 17.5 0.2 55.0 54.6 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.8 14.8 1.3 78.7 70.5 11.6 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.7 21.0 2.2 85.2 77.8 14.9 15.6 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------