***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.6 17.4 20.0 1.6 82.4 78.4 14.6 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 16.5 17.3 20.5 2.2 88.6 86.1 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 18.1 18.6 20.0 1.5 82.1 77.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.8 17.4 1.0 75.9 70.0 11.0 11.8 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.9 17.3 0.7 72.8 66.4 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.5 14.6 0.4 66.1 60.1 11.7 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.3 17.3 20.9 2.5 90.2 87.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.9 15.0 0.8 73.6 66.5 6.5 7.9 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 15.7 16.0 17.8 0.9 78.5 70.6 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.7 16.1 16.0 0.9 76.5 68.9 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.6 16.5 0.5 66.0 62.3 13.6 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.4 15.7 0.6 67.6 62.6 11.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.0 15.2 0.0 49.9 51.4 12.8 14.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.8 17.7 1.0 76.3 71.1 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.5 18.0 19.2 0.9 77.5 71.4 15.7 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.9 16.1 0.3 58.5 56.9 14.5 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 16.8 17.6 20.0 2.2 89.0 84.5 14.7 15.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 14.0 14.7 15.1 0.8 73.1 66.2 11.9 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 16.0 17.0 20.4 2.2 88.1 85.7 14.1 14.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.5 12.9 0.8 70.9 66.5 8.0 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 15.6 16.1 19.3 1.0 80.6 72.5 13.5 14.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 16.0 16.9 20.4 2.4 89.7 87.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.8 16.5 20.2 2.1 86.0 84.4 13.7 14.2 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.7 17.5 1.0 77.7 70.8 14.4 15.3 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.8 16.2 18.6 1.0 75.7 69.3 14.1 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.5 14.7 0.3 59.4 55.8 12.5 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.1 19.2 1.3 80.4 75.1 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.7 17.9 0.8 75.4 69.2 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.7 14.5 1.0 76.7 71.0 10.9 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.5 17.0 20.7 2.2 87.7 85.4 14.3 15.5 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------