***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.3 43.2 35.3 92.1 54.9 43.6 22.6 38.0 57.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 28.4 45.7 34.5 98.5 56.5 48.5 30.3 40.5 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 30.2 46.9 37.1 94.9 56.1 45.5 31.3 43.3 53.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 63.2 59.1 37.9 100.7 59.3 49.6 33.6 53.1 70.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 49.1 55.1 36.9 100.5 58.3 47.4 28.6 41.0 66.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 60.0 57.0 41.7 100.3 57.5 49.9 43.8 52.9 64.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.8 33.7 32.9 93.5 56.6 47.8 22.6 30.8 46.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 80.1 90.1 46.6 101.7 59.1 49.1 55.0 66.0 100.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 27.5 47.5 37.5 92.3 54.2 43.9 32.3 42.2 54.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 33.8 55.9 47.9 99.1 56.7 47.1 43.3 49.6 86.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 40.9 44.0 36.4 102.5 58.1 48.5 24.7 32.9 52.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 61.4 56.8 35.2 100.3 59.2 49.2 39.3 50.8 78.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 44.4 48.8 33.1 98.5 60.5 50.3 21.8 41.0 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 68.6 61.7 51.8 100.4 57.1 49.7 52.1 56.8 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 33.4 39.7 32.1 103.8 64.0 50.9 18.2 21.5 44.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 40.5 39.5 34.6 103.0 60.4 50.4 25.3 37.7 41.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 25.1 39.8 32.7 92.6 53.0 46.2 23.3 38.1 57.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 65.8 66.8 55.9 100.3 57.6 48.3 40.2 57.5 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 29.2 62.1 36.1 99.1 57.0 47.9 31.6 41.6 68.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 57.6 57.3 56.5 102.0 58.3 50.5 40.7 50.8 76.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 51.9 50.4 35.3 92.3 55.7 44.0 34.4 44.9 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 33.8 49.7 35.5 94.0 53.5 46.4 40.8 48.8 69.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 30.8 50.6 38.4 98.0 56.6 47.5 36.4 42.9 62.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 64.0 64.3 48.9 100.5 57.5 48.2 41.0 61.5 67.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 30.2 47.1 38.3 95.6 58.4 44.9 27.6 43.8 57.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 39.3 49.7 28.5 102.5 62.1 51.9 19.2 32.0 52.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 29.1 45.5 37.4 92.3 55.3 44.0 26.0 43.2 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.9 54.0 36.0 102.4 61.3 50.5 24.6 41.7 62.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 82.6 81.5 58.9 101.5 57.6 49.8 59.1 74.0 91.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 24.1 37.6 35.6 98.8 57.6 48.7 24.1 31.0 62.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------