***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.6 7.6 86.3 65.1 49.1 0.9 2.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.9 9.1 8.2 98.6 66.9 47.5 0.6 4.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.6 8.6 95.4 64.6 50.1 1.2 5.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.5 21.8 8.8 106.4 69.4 51.3 2.1 5.0 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.4 9.0 9.6 117.2 69.6 50.8 0.4 2.9 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.4 12.6 10.8 116.5 71.2 53.7 0.6 4.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.1 13.8 7.8 97.5 67.6 47.9 1.8 4.7 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 21.3 13.1 131.7 71.9 55.9 1.6 10.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.9 12.5 9.5 104.8 66.3 48.2 0.4 2.0 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.2 19.9 13.0 121.9 68.9 53.0 1.2 5.0 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.7 12.0 9.2 123.4 71.9 53.3 0.6 3.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.3 14.4 9.6 128.2 73.6 55.1 0.1 4.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 3.9 10.6 9.1 116.9 74.1 56.1 0.1 2.0 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.3 27.3 14.5 118.8 71.3 52.4 1.6 13.3 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 7.3 5.6 79.8 67.0 49.9 0.6 2.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.4 7.4 8.5 113.6 72.0 53.7 0.5 2.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 15.4 8.6 101.8 64.8 47.0 2.2 3.4 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.6 15.6 119.0 65.9 52.7 3.4 8.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 10.8 8.9 102.2 68.4 48.7 1.2 6.3 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 11.5 15.4 120.3 68.2 54.8 0.5 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.4 8.6 8.5 101.6 65.5 48.3 0.2 2.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.0 17.1 9.5 100.3 67.6 48.5 4.5 6.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.0 13.3 9.9 110.3 69.7 51.2 1.2 6.3 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.5 13.5 118.2 67.4 52.0 1.6 8.8 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.8 11.5 9.6 104.2 65.3 48.5 0.4 3.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.8 15.3 7.7 125.0 73.9 58.3 0.0 1.2 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.6 8.3 88.1 63.0 48.2 2.2 5.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.3 14.9 7.5 97.0 69.7 52.1 0.2 3.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 22.1 16.7 117.6 66.7 53.5 4.0 6.9 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.1 14.4 8.2 95.3 66.4 49.1 1.0 4.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------