***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.1 11.2 94.4 62.7 44.6 4.0 14.2 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.9 13.6 9.6 92.0 65.2 43.4 3.0 10.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.6 14.3 11.9 98.7 63.1 46.2 5.3 9.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.5 27.2 13.8 122.6 71.1 53.9 4.4 8.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.2 17.0 12.7 113.0 67.4 49.2 4.6 10.6 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 12.4 95.9 62.0 53.5 2.3 9.7 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.8 8.9 82.5 62.7 42.7 3.5 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 33.3 14.2 118.4 69.3 49.7 10.4 18.5 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.6 13.1 12.4 106.7 63.6 47.5 3.9 7.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 22.0 14.8 115.8 67.5 49.2 4.9 11.4 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 13.8 12.8 111.7 67.5 50.4 3.1 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.1 26.1 11.6 113.8 69.8 48.8 5.9 17.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.8 10.4 101.8 68.7 53.3 0.9 6.2 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.8 22.4 14.9 101.5 62.9 45.8 2.5 14.0 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 14.8 13.4 129.9 75.9 55.4 1.2 3.5 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.4 15.9 11.1 106.2 68.6 51.6 1.7 4.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 13.3 9.0 84.9 59.9 42.3 3.7 9.3 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 24.9 16.8 116.3 67.1 48.7 7.7 13.4 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.2 17.2 10.4 98.0 65.5 44.9 4.4 11.3 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 18.5 17.7 123.2 68.3 53.5 6.2 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.8 11.4 102.2 65.3 46.9 6.0 9.3 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.8 12.3 9.6 87.1 60.6 42.3 4.5 9.1 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.2 11.0 95.4 63.4 46.6 5.1 9.4 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.8 14.3 15.1 108.3 66.5 47.2 7.7 11.8 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.8 16.5 12.8 101.3 66.4 47.5 5.7 8.9 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 7.4 13.1 10.1 110.4 70.4 55.9 1.7 5.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.2 21.8 12.5 95.7 63.2 46.2 3.1 9.7 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.6 14.0 13.3 126.6 73.4 55.0 2.3 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 19.7 18.3 116.1 66.3 50.3 14.1 16.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.8 15.0 10.0 91.6 65.1 45.3 3.9 7.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------