***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 7.1 9.5 81.8 58.5 39.4 1.1 4.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.5 8.2 79.9 60.1 42.5 3.0 5.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.6 10.6 93.3 64.2 41.6 3.7 7.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 11.3 9.7 86.5 58.5 43.0 1.4 8.3 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.5 9.0 8.7 82.7 60.5 39.7 2.0 6.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.5 10.4 93.8 58.8 46.4 4.6 9.2 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.3 7.8 78.1 61.4 44.0 1.5 8.1 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.1 19.8 9.6 64.4 52.0 38.2 10.7 19.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.4 9.2 9.4 75.1 56.6 37.0 4.3 7.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.4 10.4 10.6 68.7 53.8 36.8 6.7 9.2 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.4 8.0 8.1 81.7 61.0 38.8 2.5 4.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.2 7.3 68.2 55.9 40.0 2.1 6.6 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.6 9.1 7.4 80.6 64.9 42.2 2.1 4.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.2 15.8 11.7 77.5 57.8 38.2 5.9 11.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.4 7.6 7.7 95.0 69.9 44.9 1.2 3.3 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 11.2 8.9 93.4 65.7 43.1 2.3 7.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.2 6.8 69.2 57.8 42.2 0.9 2.9 5.8 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.7 13.0 11.9 68.0 52.4 36.8 7.7 12.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.8 8.9 80.5 60.5 41.4 5.4 9.9 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 8.6 10.8 64.3 48.2 36.8 6.9 10.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.4 10.0 84.0 60.5 39.3 5.3 7.4 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.2 7.4 70.6 57.7 41.0 3.6 9.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.7 10.2 85.3 62.0 40.8 3.3 8.4 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.1 13.9 11.7 83.6 60.0 38.6 4.0 11.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.8 8.9 9.4 79.7 59.8 39.6 3.6 4.7 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.7 8.3 5.8 83.0 62.5 42.2 1.0 3.9 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.7 9.4 79.7 58.6 39.6 3.1 5.0 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.8 7.7 9.1 89.0 62.8 43.0 1.6 4.2 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.0 17.2 11.3 68.0 48.6 36.9 9.8 18.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.8 9.8 9.1 88.4 62.3 43.2 2.6 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------