***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 29.6 30.1 32.1 2.3 88.0 80.8 28.3 28.5 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 29.7 30.5 32.0 2.0 82.7 77.7 28.0 28.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 29.7 30.0 32.1 2.0 81.6 76.7 28.2 28.8 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 22.6 23.6 29.8 2.5 89.1 83.5 21.3 21.9 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.5 30.1 1.9 82.4 77.0 28.9 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 28.2 28.4 26.4 1.0 72.3 68.2 27.7 27.9 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 29.5 30.5 31.9 2.2 87.8 81.2 27.9 28.5 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 17.8 18.0 27.9 1.7 80.4 74.5 16.6 17.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 29.6 29.9 30.3 1.8 80.9 75.5 28.2 29.0 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 29.3 29.8 28.7 1.8 82.0 76.0 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.9 29.8 1.4 74.8 70.8 28.2 28.9 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 28.5 28.6 29.3 1.3 73.5 69.5 27.4 27.9 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 29.8 29.8 28.5 0.8 65.2 63.4 28.8 29.4 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.1 29.7 30.0 2.1 86.2 78.8 27.6 28.4 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.0 31.5 2.0 82.6 78.0 29.4 29.9 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 30.6 30.5 29.1 1.1 69.8 67.3 29.4 30.2 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 29.3 30.4 31.9 2.4 88.8 82.6 27.5 28.1 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 28.2 28.7 28.0 2.0 84.7 78.6 27.1 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 29.2 29.7 32.1 2.0 81.1 76.4 27.9 28.2 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 24.0 24.6 25.6 2.0 84.8 79.6 22.7 23.5 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 29.6 30.3 31.6 2.2 87.2 79.9 28.3 29.1 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 29.5 30.2 31.8 2.4 87.6 81.5 27.7 28.4 29.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.3 29.6 32.0 1.9 78.1 75.1 27.9 28.4 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 28.9 29.5 30.0 2.1 84.9 78.4 27.7 28.3 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 29.8 30.9 30.7 2.4 90.9 83.2 28.5 29.3 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.2 28.5 0.8 65.8 63.7 28.3 28.8 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 29.3 30.0 31.3 2.4 90.5 83.3 28.0 28.5 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.0 30.2 2.0 83.5 78.7 29.2 29.9 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.8 24.7 27.0 2.0 85.3 79.2 22.5 22.9 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.8 31.9 1.9 81.5 76.5 28.1 28.4 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------