***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.5 32.6 1.5 69.1 64.9 27.9 29.7 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.7 32.3 1.2 66.6 62.4 28.1 29.0 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.5 30.2 32.7 1.3 66.8 62.8 26.8 29.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 24.1 24.4 30.7 1.8 70.6 67.9 20.6 22.7 24.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 31.1 31.2 30.6 1.3 66.2 63.5 27.6 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.8 27.0 0.6 59.7 57.3 26.2 28.3 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.4 32.3 1.4 69.8 64.4 27.5 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.2 28.7 1.0 63.0 61.2 16.2 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.5 30.6 1.2 66.4 62.6 26.8 29.5 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.3 29.3 1.2 65.6 62.5 27.1 28.6 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.6 30.4 30.1 0.8 61.3 59.3 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.3 30.1 0.8 58.5 58.5 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.3 28.8 0.5 56.8 56.1 27.4 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 30.5 30.3 30.2 1.4 70.4 63.7 26.4 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.6 31.8 31.6 1.4 67.1 64.8 28.0 30.4 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.7 31.5 29.6 0.7 59.9 58.1 27.4 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.3 32.2 1.6 71.1 65.3 27.2 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.3 28.7 1.4 67.0 64.4 25.9 28.1 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 30.2 29.7 32.5 1.2 66.1 61.6 26.9 29.0 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 24.9 25.0 26.1 1.4 68.0 65.0 22.4 23.8 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.8 31.9 1.5 68.6 65.2 26.5 29.8 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.7 32.1 1.5 70.1 64.1 27.8 29.3 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 30.1 29.8 32.4 1.1 66.6 61.6 27.0 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.9 29.6 30.3 1.4 67.8 64.1 25.9 28.9 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.5 31.0 1.8 73.2 67.9 27.1 30.0 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.0 29.4 0.4 52.2 54.6 26.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.7 31.7 1.7 73.0 67.0 26.7 29.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 31.5 31.8 30.8 1.4 67.4 64.9 28.1 30.3 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.8 27.5 1.5 68.3 64.8 21.2 23.7 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.4 30.3 32.3 1.1 65.7 61.9 27.0 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------