***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 30.4 31.1 31.3 2.0 77.2 71.5 26.9 27.7 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 29.7 30.5 31.2 1.7 73.6 68.8 27.3 28.0 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 30.1 29.9 31.3 1.6 72.8 67.3 27.3 28.0 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 23.5 24.5 28.8 2.2 79.8 73.4 20.4 21.3 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.4 30.2 29.3 1.6 73.0 67.3 27.6 28.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 27.7 28.3 25.8 0.7 64.3 60.2 26.6 27.1 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.9 31.1 1.9 76.9 71.5 27.1 28.2 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 18.0 18.0 27.1 1.3 70.1 64.6 15.0 16.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.9 29.1 29.6 1.4 71.5 65.7 27.3 27.9 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 29.3 28.9 27.8 1.4 71.0 65.7 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 30.0 28.9 29.1 1.1 66.9 62.0 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 29.1 28.4 28.4 1.0 66.6 61.5 26.2 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.8 27.9 0.4 58.3 55.8 27.3 28.5 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.6 29.3 1.7 73.0 67.9 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.3 30.8 1.6 76.3 68.6 28.8 29.2 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.8 28.4 0.7 63.9 59.2 28.3 29.3 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.5 30.4 31.0 2.0 78.4 71.4 26.7 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.6 28.7 27.0 1.6 73.1 66.8 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.2 31.2 1.6 72.6 68.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.6 24.7 24.8 1.6 72.4 66.8 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 30.7 31.1 30.8 1.8 75.8 69.2 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.1 31.1 31.0 2.0 77.5 71.3 27.1 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 29.5 29.1 31.2 1.6 71.7 66.8 27.0 27.6 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.4 29.3 1.7 73.5 67.4 26.6 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 30.4 31.1 29.9 2.1 79.2 72.1 27.9 28.5 29.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.7 27.7 0.6 57.8 57.2 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 30.1 30.8 30.5 2.1 79.1 72.9 26.6 28.0 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.1 31.7 29.4 1.7 76.7 69.4 28.5 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.0 23.9 26.0 1.6 72.9 66.5 21.0 22.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 29.7 29.7 31.1 1.6 72.6 68.0 26.6 28.1 29.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------